Apple iPhone 5 Release Date Has To Come

[p3unit32]

It had everything to do with the IC chips. The sub 30nm chips requested by Apple weren't being produced in the 10 million per month yield rate till Jan 2012. December 2011 was the first month Qualcomm even got close to those numbers. And back in July of 2011, the time frame needed for the iPhone 4S' launch in October, the yield rates were sub 1 million because Qualcomm hadn't even perfected the manufacturing process for 28nm.

In fact I predicted Dec 2011 was the earliest anyone could ramp up to Apple's demands back in May or June of last year due to the manufacturing complexity of a 22nm to 28nm LTE based chip.

I knew you'd straighten it all out. Thanks for the detailed analysis.😉

 

[pianoman]

It had everything to do with the IC chips. The sub 30nm chips requested by Apple weren't being produced in the 10 million per month yield rate till Jan 2012. December 2011 was the first month Qualcomm even got close to those numbers. And back in July of 2011, the time frame needed for the iPhone 4S' launch in October, the yield rates were sub 1 million because Qualcomm hadn't even perfected the manufacturing process for 28nm.

In fact I predicted Dec 2011 was the earliest anyone could ramp up to Apple's demands back in May or June of last year due to the manufacturing complexity of a 22nm to 28nm LTE based chip.

Thanks, Skull! Appreciate your expert input. But my other observations were also in the equation. Basically speaking - Apple was likely very "relieved" Qualcomm couldn't meet their demand, because of AT&T not being LTE ready in enough markets - even if Qualcomm could have delivered.

 

[p3unit32]

Thanks, Skull! Appreciate your expert input. But my other observations were also in the equation. Basically speaking - Apple was likely very "relieved" Qualcomm couldn't meet their demand, because of AT&T not being LTE ready in enough markets - even if Qualcomm could have delivered.

Friend your statement is still irrelevant. AT&T still doesn't have enough markets, but their working on it just as they was when the iPhone 4S was released. Eventually it will cover as many areas as it's 3G network has.

 

[Skull One]

I'll tell you what will make this interesting. Verizon's LTE coverage will be at or near 260 million people by mid October. AT&T won't even be half that. Wonder what kind of exodus we will be seeing from AT&T considering they already lost around 800k plus people in February 2011 alone over the iPhone just coming to VZW to begin with.

 

[p3unit32]

I'll tell you what will make this interesting. Verizon's LTE coverage will be at or near 260 million people by mid October. AT&T won't even be half that. Wonder what kind of exodus we will be seeing from AT&T considering they already lost around 800k plus people in February 2011 alone over the iPhone just coming to VZW to begin with.

Interesting thought. I thought about leaving also, but I still have unlimited data even though they'll throttle me when I reach 2gigs.

 

[OneMarcil]

If memory serves, it was actually Windows 3 that had the first sequential number on the box art. Prior to that the box art only had 286 and 386 on them. But then again, I am old and my memory could be a little off

I was wrong. Here is the current information.

The first independent version of Microsoft Windows, version 1.0, released on 20 November 1985, achieved little popularity. It was originally going to be called "Interface Manager" but Rowland Hanson, the head of marketing at Microsoft, convinced the company that the name Windows would be more appealing to consumers. Windows 1.0 was not a complete operating system, but rather an "operating environment" that extended MS-DOS, and shared the latter's inherent flaws and problems.

Sent from my 64gb iPad 1

 

[pianoman]

Friend your statement is still irrelevant. AT&T still doesn't have enough markets, but their working on it just as they was when the iPhone 4S was released. Eventually it will cover as many areas as it's 3G network has.

No that was the relevance in my whole point. Maybe you misunderstood me. The other main reason we didn't get LTE ability in the 4S (in addition to the chip shortage as Skull pointed out) was that AT&T is still the largest carrier for iPhones and too many people would have been upset that LTE wasn't available in their area in Oct of last year. Then see Skull's point below too.. yikes!

I'll tell you what will make this interesting. Verizon's LTE coverage will be at or near 260 million people by mid October. AT&T won't even be half that. Wonder what kind of exodus we will be seeing from AT&T considering they already lost around 800k plus people in February 2011 alone over the iPhone just coming to VZW to begin with.

How do you know AT&T won't be ready by Oct (on wider LTE)? Got some inside info? Too many people are in the middle of contract periods for a "mass exodus" to happen. But still - maybe paying for getting out will be worth it for some. It will be for me - now that I see Verizon's coverage area.

When I came to the iPhone world with the first one - still - AT&T far and away had the greatest cell (2G) coverage in the burbs. In the major cities Verizon, Sprint and Tmobile did just fine - but in the 'boonies' where I can tend to travel - AT&T beat everyone hands down. Also GSM was the only service in Spain and I'm in Spain several times a year. But now that I got my iPad 3 + 4G Verizon and have been travelling around with that thing - I can see that Verizon's coverage is just amazing everywhere now. They've really, really - done it. Not to mention how much of their area is now LTE. So if AT&T can't step to the plate in October with LTE in my area - I will likely jump ship. The hardest part for me - will be losing my grandfathered unlimited data plan with AT&T. Not eager to lose that. Oy -- decisions, decisions...

 

[p3unit32]

. The other main reason we didn't get LTE ability in the 4S (in addition to the chip shortage as Skull pointed out) !

What shortage? The chips weren't ready then. They did not meet Apples standards. The carriers are not the reason the 4S didn't get LTE, it was the chip's manufacture not having the tech perfected as Skull stated in his post.

 

[p3unit32]

I'll tell you what will make this interesting. Verizon's LTE coverage will be at or near 260 million people by mid October. AT&T won't even be half that. Wonder what kind of exodus we will be seeing from AT&T considering they already lost around 800k plus people in February 2011 alone over the iPhone just coming to VZW to begin with.

Question: Do you think Apple will incorporate a quad-core processor into the next iPhone with the addition of the LTE chip?

 

[Skull One]

Question: Do you think Apple will incorporate a quad-core processor into the next iPhone with the addition of the LTE chip?

I will give two answer with the first being my opinion. The second will be based on the facts that are known today.


1) Not a chance in hell. iOS 5 is barely able to use a dual core CPU properly. The simple fact of the user's app only needing one CPU due to direct interaction of the screen being the limiting factor means the second core is simply doing background OS threads. It is complete overkill to add any more CPU cores at this time until a better version of iOS exists.

2) The current 1420 mAH battery in the 4S is already showing signs it can't keep up with the consumer demands being put on it. If Apple adds the A5X module to the iPhone (5th Gen)*, it might just add the whole 1GB of memory instead of the current 512MB as with the 4S. That means the quad core GPU, 1GB of memory and LTE chip will be drawing more power than any previous iPhone ever made. The only solution is a bigger battery. A quad core CPU will take even more power and I don't think they want to go much past a 2800 mAH battery due to size. BTW add a 4" screen and even more power will be needed. The current dual core CPU is the one area they can say "it works well in the iPad (3rd Gen) lets use it".


I don't see a thinner iPhone this year unless they do go to a 4" screen and they can thin out that battery over a larger area.


*The next iPhone is the 5th Generation based on Apple's internal documentation. While yes it is the 6th model introduced, two of previous models where the same generation.

 

[p3unit32]

I will give two answer with the first being my opinion. The second will be based on the facts that are known today.

1) Not a chance in hell. iOS 5 is barely able to use a dual core CPU properly. The simple fact of the user's app only needing one CPU due to direct interaction of the screen being the limiting factor means the second core is simply doing background OS threads. It is complete overkill to add any more CPU cores at this time until a better version of iOS exists.

2) The current 1420 mAH battery in the 4S is already showing signs it can't keep up with the consumer demands being put on it. If Apple adds the A5X module to the iPhone (5th Gen)*, it might just add the whole 1GB of memory instead of the current 512MB as with the 4S. That means the quad core GPU, 1GB of memory and LTE chip will be drawing more power than any previous iPhone ever made. The only solution is a bigger battery. A quad core CPU will take even more power and I don't think they want to go much past a 2800 mAH battery due to size. BTW add a 4" screen and even more power will be needed. The current dual core CPU is the one area they can say "it works well in the iPad (3rd Gen) lets use it".

I don't see a thinner iPhone this year unless they do go to a 4" screen and they can thin out that battery over a larger area.

*The next iPhone is the 5th Generation based on Apple's internal documentation. While yes it is the 6th model introduced, two of previous models where the same generation.

Nice points! I figure you would touch on some of the factors I considered, which the battery being on of them. Your thoughts on the dual core CPU and how it functions with iOS was interesting though. Learned something new.

 

[pianoman]

. The other main reason we didn't get LTE ability in the 4S (in addition to the chip shortage as Skull pointed out)

What shortage? The chips weren't ready then. They did not meet Apples standards. The carriers are not the reason the 4S didn't get LTE, it was the chip's manufacture not having the tech perfected as Skull stated in his post.

Skull made clear that the "amount" of chips was the issue. Read his post again. Here's what he said.

The sub 30nm chips requested by Apple weren't being produced in the 10 million per month yield rate till Jan 2012.

That's an "amount issue" - not a lack of technology. The carriers were also part of the issue but the inability to produce enough chips made the carrier aspect a "non-issue" in the end.

 

[p3unit32]

Skull made clear that the "amount" of chips was the issue. Read his post again. Here's what he said.That's an "amount issue" - not a lack of technology. The carriers were also part of the issue but the inability to produce enough chips made the carrier aspect a "non-issue" in the end.

You're right. I stand corrected, I Was thinking about something else that read in another article.

 

[Brooklyn]

Yes, we agree 100%. Are you a stockholder yet? I remember it bottoming out at $62/share in early '09. THinking - I should get in. I didn't.. $100 came/went, $250/came went, $300/came and went.. always an excuse.. $500 COMES AND GOES.. Unreal.. I feel like such a dolt.. Today -DowJones is up +218 -- and Apple's stock is up $15.89/share to $567... aaaargh.... Now it seems too expensive to buy to get any real gains.. And the iPad3 hasn't even shipped yet.. It will hit $650 LONG before the iPhone 5 is released, Skull. I'm jumping in 'today'. Waiting any longer - is just foohearty.
:-/

I couldn't agree more.... Get it while its hot....

 

[pianoman]

I couldn't agree more.... Get it while its hot....

Ship has sailed. It's too expensive now per share to see any real gains. If it splits - I'll jump in. To make any real $ you need the share price under $300.